The Raptors had many players come in this season, most notably: Hedo Turkolu, Jarrett Jack, Marco Bellinelli, Rasho, Antoine Wright and Reggie Evans. I am not going to include DeMar DeRozan because I do not have any stats and any college stats would be skewed because it is a different league (college).
Hedo Turkolu was the Raptors prize free-agent signing coming from the Orlando Magic. He was part of a four-team trade which allowed us to stay above the salary cap and thus, keep our exceptions. He was considered by many as one of the offensive focal points of a finals caliber team and was usually the Magic’s crunch time scorer.
Hedo shot a .541 true shooting percentage (TS %) and .478 efficient field goal percentage (eFg %) on a usage rate of 23.0. As mentioned yesterday, the league averages for TS% and eFg% are .541 and .500 respectively. So judging from these numbers, Hedo Turkolu was a below-average efficient offensive player but Hedo’s value on the offensive end is a little greater because he is capable of being a crunch-time scorer and had a very good assist percentage (AST %) of 23%. On the other hand, he was playing with good offensive players like Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson/Rafer Alston. So in general, I would rate him as a lateral efficient offensive player. Last year at this position, we used a combination of Jamario Moon, Andrea Bargnani and Shawn Marion. Looking at the statistics, I would rate Moon as an above average offensively efficient player, Bargnani as an above average offensively efficient player and Marion as a below average offensively efficient player*. So in general, I would rate this switch to Hedo Turkolu on the offensive end as lateral or at best small advantage over last year. The advantages of Hedo are his playmaking capabilities and crunch-time scoring but he also has drawbacks such as a lower shooting percentage at a higher usage rate.
Jarrett Jack was a free-agent signing from Indiana for our backup point guard and shooting guard positions. He signed a lucrative 4 year 20 million dollar contract that the Pacers decided not to match. He is considered a heady point guard that is capable of driving and can shoot reasonably well.
Jack shot at around average with TS% .554 and eFg% of .498 on a usage rate of 18.5 last year. These are reasonable numbers for a back-up pg/sg. His assist % is 18.6 percent, which is around the league average. This is going to be a definite upgrade over last year as Roko Ukic had an extremely poor efficiency, Will Solomon had poor offensive efficiency and Anthony Parker was below average offensively^. The assist rate was high for the incumbents but that was largely because they were instructed to just make entry-passes and not actually create on offense.
Marco Bellinelli was acquired from Golden State for Devean George and cash considerations. He is a willing shooter who is very streaky and is sometimes defensively liable. He is in the rotation, probably the 2nd or 3rd wing off of the bench.
Last year in Golden State, Bellinelli shot TS% .547 and eFg% of .524, which is slightly above average. In addition, he had an assist rate of 15.3 and a usage of 19.3. For a back up wing, these are solid numbers and offensively he will not be a liability out on the floor. He will be a slight upgrade over Jason Kapono and Joey Graham offensively#.
Rasho was acquired with the LLE from the Indiana Pacers. He was traded in part last offseason for Jermaine O’Neal. He is a capable veteran who is able to score the baseline jumper. His play is adequate but questions of speed have always surrounded him. He shot TS% .524 and eFg% .513 last year on a usage rate of 18.5. These are slightly below average numbers but reasonable for a backup center.
Antoine Wright was also acquired in the trade which sent Shawn Marion to Dallas. I have not seen him play, but reports say that he is very athletic and good defensively. Looking at his offensive stats, he was a poor offensive player with a TS% of .501 and a eFg% of .468. He would be a liability on offense when he play and would have to compensate with his rebounding and defense.
NOTE: I wrote that Antoine Wright had TS% .617 and eFg% of .518 yesterday. It was my mistake, and I was referring to his playoff advanced stats. I apologize if I misguided any readers.
Finally, Reggie Evans was acquired for Jason Kapono earlier in the off-season. He is known for his poor offensive skills, but is considered a very strong rebounding and adequate defensive force. The general assumptions are consistent with the stats as he has a TS% .325 and eFg% of .222. He is going to be a liability on offense every time he is on the floor, and his rebounding and defense will have to make up for this shortcoming. His usage rate of 17.2 and assist % of 0 may imply that he is grabbing a lot of offensive rebounds and trying to score himself. He is a player which will not have plays run for him.
I predict that the Raptors would rank around the 14-16 in the NBA offensive efficiency next season factoring in the improvements of Bosh, Bargnani, and Calderon, Ukic and the acquisitions of Belinelli, DeRozan, Jack and Wright. Hedo and Rasho are lateral moves and Evans is a definite downgrade.
I predict that the offense would rank around the league average, and as a result, the rebounding and defensive need to be Top 10 or even Top 5 if the Raptors are to make a push in the playoffs or to be considered championship contenders.
* Moon TS% .569, eFg% .553 usage% 12.6,
Bargnani TS% .559, eFg% .512 usage% 22.7
Marion TS% .523, eFg% .491, usage % 20.2
^ Roko Ukic TS% .430 eFg% .397 usage% 21.3 assist % 27.2
Will Solomon TS% .504 eFg% .478 usage% 20.4 assist % 36.1
Anthony Parker TS% .524 eFg% .488 usage% 16.3 assist % 15.7
# Jason Kapono TS% .525 eFg% .513 usage% 17.4 assist % 9.1
Joey Graham TS% .542 eFg% .484 usage% 18.7 assist % 5.0
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Those Antoine Wright stats seem to be wrong. Basketball-Reference has him at 50.1% TS% last season and 48.8% for his career. Antoine Wright is a disgracefully bad offensive player.
ReplyDeleteAh, I thought it was James Singleton's stats at first but the assist rate was too wierd ... they're Wright's playoff stats (167 minutes worth) ... the number's you have in the article.
As for the offense, I would be hoping + expecting the Raptors to rank around 10th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.
ReplyDeleteIf they only down around 14-16th, they'll have huge problems. Couple that with the team's problems defensively + on the backboards, and, they'd be a below average team, probably around 35 wins. That would be a nightmare result after all the Raps spending.
Offensively, I'm thinking the Raptors finish in the bottom three in offensive rebounding, are slightly below average with respect to turnovers, and well below average at getting to the free throw line. That will make them largely dependent on their jump shooting + scoring from open play to save their offense ... it's definitely possible that they're only a mediocre offensive team as a result.
But I expect them to be somewhere around 10th in offensive efficiency next season.
My mistake, when I was over at Basketball-reference.com, I acidentally looked at his playoff stats, not his regular season stats. You are right, he is a poor offensive player. It, however, is quite surprising how well he played offense in the playoffs but that may have been due to the small sample of games played and the lack of emphasis on him as an offensive player.
ReplyDeleteBefore I wrote the article, I would've guessed that the Raptors would finish around 10th but I think too many things would have to go right for them to achieve such a result. First the team has yet to play together and would need some time to gel and players like Turkolu, Bargnani, Calderon and Bosh would have match their last year's output to even have a chance. There is no guarantee that Bargnani would match his second half performance of last season and if he doesn't the results would be disasterous. Also, have such large offensive liabilities like Wright and Evans would decrease offensive efficiency and place a large burden on the other players on the court.
The more I look at the stats, the more I see a bleaker picture for next season.
Dave I have a random question for you. If the Raptors were to have just resigned Bargnani to a contract extension this offseason, would that have kept them over the cap and let them keep their exceptions? Or would they have technically fallen under and rose above again and thus lose the exceptions?
I'm not sure I follow the question so this may not answer your question ...
ReplyDeleteBargnani is on the books for around $6.5 million this coming season. This is final year of his rookie contract. His contract extension does not kick in until 2010/11, so it does not effect this coming season's (2009/10) cap at all.
Thanks Dave you answered my question. I thought that the new contract would start immediately and replace the final year of the previous contract. In light of this, I don't understand the rationale behind signing Bargnani to an extension this year, especially because he hasnt proven to be a consistent player.
ReplyDeleteDo you have any insight on why BC signed the contract this year? Is it because he really thinks that Bargnani would improve so much that he would be worth more than 10 million the year after?
Yes, that's the only reason I can think of -- that Bargnani would command more money in 12 months time, and I do think Colangelo is correct about that.
ReplyDeleteI think Bargnani would have been looking at $11-12+ million per annum (possibly a max contract) after putting up a full season's worth of his production in 2009 last season.
Still, just because Bargnani could command that much money in free agency doesn't mean he's actually worth it! I'm very unhappy with that contract extension.