Predicting the Toronto Raptor's Offensive Performance for Next Season

Yesterday I wrote a piece of how the offense for the Raptors performed last year (see below). Today, I want to evaluate the players coming in, and predict how individual and the team offense will do compared to the NBA.

The Raptors had many players come in this season, most notably: Hedo Turkolu, Jarrett Jack, Marco Bellinelli, Rasho, Antoine Wright and Reggie Evans. I am not going to include DeMar DeRozan because I do not have any stats and any college stats would be skewed because it is a different league (college).

Hedo Turkolu was the Raptors prize free-agent signing coming from the Orlando Magic. He was part of a four-team trade which allowed us to stay above the salary cap and thus, keep our exceptions. He was considered by many as one of the offensive focal points of a finals caliber team and was usually the Magic’s crunch time scorer.

Hedo shot a .541 true shooting percentage (TS %) and .478 efficient field goal percentage (eFg %) on a usage rate of 23.0. As mentioned yesterday, the league averages for TS% and eFg% are .541 and .500 respectively. So judging from these numbers, Hedo Turkolu was a below-average efficient offensive player but Hedo’s value on the offensive end is a little greater because he is capable of being a crunch-time scorer and had a very good assist percentage (AST %) of 23%. On the other hand, he was playing with good offensive players like Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson/Rafer Alston. So in general, I would rate him as a lateral efficient offensive player. Last year at this position, we used a combination of Jamario Moon, Andrea Bargnani and Shawn Marion. Looking at the statistics, I would rate Moon as an above average offensively efficient player, Bargnani as an above average offensively efficient player and Marion as a below average offensively efficient player*. So in general, I would rate this switch to Hedo Turkolu on the offensive end as lateral or at best small advantage over last year. The advantages of Hedo are his playmaking capabilities and crunch-time scoring but he also has drawbacks such as a lower shooting percentage at a higher usage rate.

Jarrett Jack was a free-agent signing from Indiana for our backup point guard and shooting guard positions. He signed a lucrative 4 year 20 million dollar contract that the Pacers decided not to match. He is considered a heady point guard that is capable of driving and can shoot reasonably well.

Jack shot at around average with TS% .554 and eFg% of .498 on a usage rate of 18.5 last year. These are reasonable numbers for a back-up pg/sg. His assist % is 18.6 percent, which is around the league average. This is going to be a definite upgrade over last year as Roko Ukic had an extremely poor efficiency, Will Solomon had poor offensive efficiency and Anthony Parker was below average offensively^. The assist rate was high for the incumbents but that was largely because they were instructed to just make entry-passes and not actually create on offense.
Marco Bellinelli was acquired from Golden State for Devean George and cash considerations. He is a willing shooter who is very streaky and is sometimes defensively liable. He is in the rotation, probably the 2nd or 3rd wing off of the bench.

Last year in Golden State, Bellinelli shot TS% .547 and eFg% of .524, which is slightly above average. In addition, he had an assist rate of 15.3 and a usage of 19.3. For a back up wing, these are solid numbers and offensively he will not be a liability out on the floor. He will be a slight upgrade over Jason Kapono and Joey Graham offensively#.

Rasho was acquired with the LLE from the Indiana Pacers. He was traded in part last offseason for Jermaine O’Neal. He is a capable veteran who is able to score the baseline jumper. His play is adequate but questions of speed have always surrounded him. He shot TS% .524 and eFg% .513 last year on a usage rate of 18.5. These are slightly below average numbers but reasonable for a backup center.

Antoine Wright was also acquired in the trade which sent Shawn Marion to Dallas. I have not seen him play, but reports say that he is very athletic and good defensively. Looking at his offensive stats, he was a poor offensive player with a TS% of .501 and a eFg% of .468. He would be a liability on offense when he play and would have to compensate with his rebounding and defense.



NOTE: I wrote that Antoine Wright had TS% .617 and eFg% of .518 yesterday. It was my mistake, and I was referring to his playoff advanced stats. I apologize if I misguided any readers.


Finally, Reggie Evans was acquired for Jason Kapono earlier in the off-season. He is known for his poor offensive skills, but is considered a very strong rebounding and adequate defensive force. The general assumptions are consistent with the stats as he has a TS% .325 and eFg% of .222. He is going to be a liability on offense every time he is on the floor, and his rebounding and defense will have to make up for this shortcoming. His usage rate of 17.2 and assist % of 0 may imply that he is grabbing a lot of offensive rebounds and trying to score himself. He is a player which will not have plays run for him.




I predict that the Raptors would rank around the 14-16 in the NBA offensive efficiency next season factoring in the improvements of Bosh, Bargnani, and Calderon, Ukic and the acquisitions of Belinelli, DeRozan, Jack and Wright. Hedo and Rasho are lateral moves and Evans is a definite downgrade.

I predict that the offense would rank around the league average, and as a result, the rebounding and defensive need to be Top 10 or even Top 5 if the Raptors are to make a push in the playoffs or to be considered championship contenders.


* Moon TS% .569, eFg% .553 usage% 12.6,
Bargnani TS% .559, eFg% .512 usage% 22.7
Marion TS% .523, eFg% .491, usage % 20.2

^ Roko Ukic TS% .430 eFg% .397 usage% 21.3 assist % 27.2
Will Solomon TS% .504 eFg% .478 usage% 20.4 assist % 36.1
Anthony Parker TS% .524 eFg% .488 usage% 16.3 assist % 15.7

# Jason Kapono TS% .525 eFg% .513 usage% 17.4 assist % 9.1
Joey Graham TS% .542 eFg% .484 usage% 18.7 assist % 5.0

Evaluating the Raptors' Offense

Offense is predicted to be the Raptor's major strength next year due to the likes of Hedo Turkolu, Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon in our starting rotation. To see if this claim is true, I am going to examine the offensive performance of the Raptors last year and try and make predictions for this upcoming season. This article is going to explore the Raptors' performance on the offensive end last year, subjective measure of what the team in general did and how key individual players performed. Tomorrow, I will outline this upcoming season with predictions of individual player performances, team sets and how the Raptors offense would rank along the division and the NBA.

Last year the Raptors scored 99 points a game and 45.8% shooting. Compared to the rest of the NBA, this was fairly mediocre. Looking at some advanced defensive statistics, the Raptors offensive efficiency was 104.3, a very poor 22th in the NBA. The conference finalists (Lakers, Cleveland, Orlando and Nuggets) were all top 8 in offensive efficiency so the Raptors have a lot to make up a lot of ground in this department. 9 out of the top 10 teams in offensive efficiency made the playoffs so it is a good indication of a play-off quality squad (Phoenix Suns were the only team who did not make the playoffs but they were a 9th seed and the reason they were not better was because of their extremely poor defensive efficiency (22nd in the NBA). Toronto also came 20th in efficient field goal percentage, dispelling the myth that they were a good shooting team. The team may have good shooters (and even that is up to debate) and if so, they were not put in situations where they could score efficiently. Finally, the Raptors were ranked 3rd in assist ratio, and 14th in pace, meaning that this team was generally a half-court team which favored ball movement over 1 on 1 play.

I am going to break the Raptors season into three parts: beginning of the season with Sam Mitchell, the implementation of Jay Triano (with Calderon being injured), and the addition of Shawn Marion. There are many more subtle variables (Bargnani playing small forward, Bargnani becoming the starter and JO getting injured) but they will be considered in the context of their respective category.

At the beginning of the season, Sam Mitchell was trying to identify how to co-exist Bosh and O’Neal. At the same time, he was trying to give Bargnani as much time as possible. For offense, the main set being run was a pick and pop with Bosh and Calderon at the three point line with Bosh generally receiving the pass. At this position, Bosh would generally try to create opportunities one-on-one with the intent of getting to the free-throw line. This offense was predicated on the half-court because of O’Neal’s lack of agility and Calderon’s cautious nature. When this proved to not be effective, Mitchell tried the “towers” approach by putting Bargnani at small forward. This was a disaster defensively as Bargnani could not cover SF’s resulting in rotations of help defense of easy buckets for the opposition.

Jay Triano’s arrival as the head coach marked a shift towards more ball-movement and running in the open court. Triano spoke about finding cutters and creating scoring opportunities through ball movement. However the early term was more of the same as the team struggled to embrace the new methods. O’Neal got injured and Bargnani eventually become the full-time starter and with Bargnani willing to run the floor, the offense started to speed up a little. When I watched the games, one positive I remembered was the back-door cut of Jamario Moon with Calderon hitting him for an alley-oop.

Finally, there was a significant shift in offensive philosophy when O’Neal and parts was traded for Shawn Marion and Banks. This moved signified that the Raptors were shifting from a half-court oriented team to more of a running team. Calderon came back and started taking more risks with his passing and Marion made smart offensive decision with his positioning and cutting. There was more running off opponent misses and pushing the ball. The emphasis was on strong ball-movement in the half-court set. This type of offense, in my opinion, was closer to what Triano envisioned for the Raptors.

With regards to individual statistics, we are going to examine Efficient Field Goal Percentage (eFg %) True Shooting Percentage (TS %) and the Usage Rate (USG%). I am also just going to focus on the major players for Toronto last season. eFg% is a measure of shooting percentage that takes into account that the three point shot is worth one more point with .500 being average while TS% is a measure that takes into account all different types of shots (three point, two point, free throw etc.) and the league average was around .541. Looking at some individual player statistics, Bargnani and Bosh had average efficient field goal percentage (eFg %) at .512 and .492 respectively, Calderon was extremely strong at shooting with at .561 eFg% and Jermaine O’Neal was fairly poor with .473 and .422. In terms of True Shooting % (TS %), Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon had very strong numbers, each above .559. Jermaine O’Neal and Shawn Marion both had below average TS%. Finally usage rate is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by the player. On the team, Chris Bosh, Jermaine O’Neal and Andrea Bargnani had the highest usage rates with all of them being over 22%.

Looking at these results, it becomes clear that Jermaine O’Neal was a main reason why we had a poor season on offense. He had the third highest usage rate, and below average TS% and eFg% and also had one of the lowest (ignoring scrubs) assist rate on the team. He was, in my opinion, a black hole on offense and a large reason for our poor offensive play. Andrea Bargnani was an above average shooter but also had a low assist rate. He was a neutral on the offense for the Raptors last year. Chris Bosh was a good shooter (extremely good TS%, below average eFg% - because of inconsistency on three pointers), and had a below average assist rate and was considered a slight plus on offense. Jose Calderon was by far our best offensive player (extremely good TS% and eFg%) and also had an extraordinary assist percentage (41%). His usage rate was far too low for the offensive contribution he gave. I have to state this again, Jose Calderon was clearly our best offensive player by an enormous margin.

In general, the team’s emphasis was to throw it into the big man and let them try to create shot opportunities. Our best offensive player was severely under-utilized and two of the players with a higher usage rate than him were neutral or worse on offense. Bosh may be a better offensive player than the stats indicate, but the stats may have been lower because he had to create offense for himself and teammates, something which he is not strong at doing. Andrea Bargnani is a neutral on offense and that may improve, but if it does not, he has to improve his defense and rebounding significantly to warrant minutes in the rotation. Finally, it is such a relief that Jermaine O’Neal is gone, and our offense would be more efficient just because of that move. (I understand that he has been gone since the trade deadline, but I couldn’t find splits)

Note: thanks to basketballreference.com for the advanced metrics, and NBA.com for the general stats.