Evaluating the Raptors' Offense

Offense is predicted to be the Raptor's major strength next year due to the likes of Hedo Turkolu, Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon in our starting rotation. To see if this claim is true, I am going to examine the offensive performance of the Raptors last year and try and make predictions for this upcoming season. This article is going to explore the Raptors' performance on the offensive end last year, subjective measure of what the team in general did and how key individual players performed. Tomorrow, I will outline this upcoming season with predictions of individual player performances, team sets and how the Raptors offense would rank along the division and the NBA.

Last year the Raptors scored 99 points a game and 45.8% shooting. Compared to the rest of the NBA, this was fairly mediocre. Looking at some advanced defensive statistics, the Raptors offensive efficiency was 104.3, a very poor 22th in the NBA. The conference finalists (Lakers, Cleveland, Orlando and Nuggets) were all top 8 in offensive efficiency so the Raptors have a lot to make up a lot of ground in this department. 9 out of the top 10 teams in offensive efficiency made the playoffs so it is a good indication of a play-off quality squad (Phoenix Suns were the only team who did not make the playoffs but they were a 9th seed and the reason they were not better was because of their extremely poor defensive efficiency (22nd in the NBA). Toronto also came 20th in efficient field goal percentage, dispelling the myth that they were a good shooting team. The team may have good shooters (and even that is up to debate) and if so, they were not put in situations where they could score efficiently. Finally, the Raptors were ranked 3rd in assist ratio, and 14th in pace, meaning that this team was generally a half-court team which favored ball movement over 1 on 1 play.

I am going to break the Raptors season into three parts: beginning of the season with Sam Mitchell, the implementation of Jay Triano (with Calderon being injured), and the addition of Shawn Marion. There are many more subtle variables (Bargnani playing small forward, Bargnani becoming the starter and JO getting injured) but they will be considered in the context of their respective category.

At the beginning of the season, Sam Mitchell was trying to identify how to co-exist Bosh and O’Neal. At the same time, he was trying to give Bargnani as much time as possible. For offense, the main set being run was a pick and pop with Bosh and Calderon at the three point line with Bosh generally receiving the pass. At this position, Bosh would generally try to create opportunities one-on-one with the intent of getting to the free-throw line. This offense was predicated on the half-court because of O’Neal’s lack of agility and Calderon’s cautious nature. When this proved to not be effective, Mitchell tried the “towers” approach by putting Bargnani at small forward. This was a disaster defensively as Bargnani could not cover SF’s resulting in rotations of help defense of easy buckets for the opposition.

Jay Triano’s arrival as the head coach marked a shift towards more ball-movement and running in the open court. Triano spoke about finding cutters and creating scoring opportunities through ball movement. However the early term was more of the same as the team struggled to embrace the new methods. O’Neal got injured and Bargnani eventually become the full-time starter and with Bargnani willing to run the floor, the offense started to speed up a little. When I watched the games, one positive I remembered was the back-door cut of Jamario Moon with Calderon hitting him for an alley-oop.

Finally, there was a significant shift in offensive philosophy when O’Neal and parts was traded for Shawn Marion and Banks. This moved signified that the Raptors were shifting from a half-court oriented team to more of a running team. Calderon came back and started taking more risks with his passing and Marion made smart offensive decision with his positioning and cutting. There was more running off opponent misses and pushing the ball. The emphasis was on strong ball-movement in the half-court set. This type of offense, in my opinion, was closer to what Triano envisioned for the Raptors.

With regards to individual statistics, we are going to examine Efficient Field Goal Percentage (eFg %) True Shooting Percentage (TS %) and the Usage Rate (USG%). I am also just going to focus on the major players for Toronto last season. eFg% is a measure of shooting percentage that takes into account that the three point shot is worth one more point with .500 being average while TS% is a measure that takes into account all different types of shots (three point, two point, free throw etc.) and the league average was around .541. Looking at some individual player statistics, Bargnani and Bosh had average efficient field goal percentage (eFg %) at .512 and .492 respectively, Calderon was extremely strong at shooting with at .561 eFg% and Jermaine O’Neal was fairly poor with .473 and .422. In terms of True Shooting % (TS %), Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon had very strong numbers, each above .559. Jermaine O’Neal and Shawn Marion both had below average TS%. Finally usage rate is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by the player. On the team, Chris Bosh, Jermaine O’Neal and Andrea Bargnani had the highest usage rates with all of them being over 22%.

Looking at these results, it becomes clear that Jermaine O’Neal was a main reason why we had a poor season on offense. He had the third highest usage rate, and below average TS% and eFg% and also had one of the lowest (ignoring scrubs) assist rate on the team. He was, in my opinion, a black hole on offense and a large reason for our poor offensive play. Andrea Bargnani was an above average shooter but also had a low assist rate. He was a neutral on the offense for the Raptors last year. Chris Bosh was a good shooter (extremely good TS%, below average eFg% - because of inconsistency on three pointers), and had a below average assist rate and was considered a slight plus on offense. Jose Calderon was by far our best offensive player (extremely good TS% and eFg%) and also had an extraordinary assist percentage (41%). His usage rate was far too low for the offensive contribution he gave. I have to state this again, Jose Calderon was clearly our best offensive player by an enormous margin.

In general, the team’s emphasis was to throw it into the big man and let them try to create shot opportunities. Our best offensive player was severely under-utilized and two of the players with a higher usage rate than him were neutral or worse on offense. Bosh may be a better offensive player than the stats indicate, but the stats may have been lower because he had to create offense for himself and teammates, something which he is not strong at doing. Andrea Bargnani is a neutral on offense and that may improve, but if it does not, he has to improve his defense and rebounding significantly to warrant minutes in the rotation. Finally, it is such a relief that Jermaine O’Neal is gone, and our offense would be more efficient just because of that move. (I understand that he has been gone since the trade deadline, but I couldn’t find splits)

Note: thanks to basketballreference.com for the advanced metrics, and NBA.com for the general stats.

Thoughts of the Jermaine O'Neal Trade

After last year's disappointing first round playoff defeat to the Magic in 5 games, I was one in the camp who thought that Colangelo was not going to alter the chemistry of the Raps; his only change maybe being adding big man presence through the draft. There were many names that intrigued me, Roy Hibbert, Kosta, and the Lopez twins easily come to mind now. Even though each of these players brought different strengths to the table, ultimately I was pretty sure that none of them would be difference makers for this team, especially this upcoming year. So it was a pretty big surprise to me when the Raptors announced that they traded T.J Ford, Rasho, Basten and Rights to our '08 first rounder (Hibbert) to Indiana in exchange for Jermaine O'Neal.
My initial thoughts of this trade were joyous, finally we have someone to play centre and shift Bosh back to power forward. This also allows Bargs to be the first man off the bench and to spell relief for both guys. In 28.7 minutes a game, Jermaine averaged 13.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists but played for only 42 games. The last four seasons, he has played 44, 51, 69 and 42 games, legitimizing concerns of his future health. However, over a 5 year period prior to that he has played between 70 and 81 games every year, so we may just have to watch and determine which Jermaine we are getting in terms of health. He has been a 19+ point scorer for seven years before falling to 13.6 ppg last year. Judging by his career shooting percentage numbers, he has never been an 'efficient' scorer, never average more that .500 % in his career. Injury concerns was one of the major incentives why Indiana were willing to trade him along with his bloated contacts and his presence being a constant reminder of the brawl at the palace.

T.J. Ford, really became his own as the point guard leader of the raptors over the past two years. The beginning of last year he was the unquestioned starter and split minutes pretty evenly with Calderon until that horrible injury by Horford (I don't care if he did it by accident, there was no point challenging that play anyways). After that Calderon really took the reigns of the team and Ford was relegated to bench. He didn't like that, and the chemistry of the team really began to sour and this was a key reason for us limping into the playoffs and subsequently losing in the first round. It was clear that one of either Ford or Calderon needed to be traded as they both thought they should be starters. Ford was given the short stick. His stats for last season were in 24.8 minutes 12.1 ppg, 6.2 assists and 2 turnovers in 51 games. He was a quality player and a nice change of pace from Calderon but he still took too many shots when sometimes a pass was the better option. Having said that, he was, sadly, one of the few raptors who could actually create his own shot.

Rasho was actually one of my favourite players on the team last year because of his total consistency and professionalism. He truly fit in with that team and his baseline J from 10 was automatic. He played good defense and was servicable in offence, but he did contribute to our lack of athleticism and as a result, he really wasn't much of a help-side defender. He had a good basketball IQ and knew how to play the game smart. His stats were 20.9 mpg, 7.8 points, 4.8 boards and 0.2 blocks in 71 games. Solid, solid back-up centre in my opinion.

Basten was actually signed from Indiana and really didn't play much for the Raps and the first rounder was used to entice the Pacers into taking the deal. Hibbert looked good from what i've seen in his Georgetown days and I think his best case is a slightly more athletic Rasho sans the IQ. He needs to work on the offensive part of his game to be successful.

Now, I think this was a good trade for both teams. Toronto has never had such a interior presence on defense who can challenge the opposition if the perimeter player got beaten. However, as Sam Mitchell pointed out in the globe that Jermaine should not be there to defend every play and the onus is on the primary defender to get the stop and for Jermaine to help if needed. Jermaine can also score, but often resorts to low percentage shots. The hope here is with working with Bosh, he can focus primarily on defense and the let the game run through him on offense, and not force his own. Essentially, the raptors traded depth for the potential of a former all-star defensive player with injury concerns. It remains to be seen if Jermaine can re-create his peak years and avoids his injury troubles. If not, the Raps have a huge 20 million hit on the cap for the next two years. For Indiana, they get to really rebuild on the fly with TJ and Rasho. Hibbert is an interesting prospect and Basten looks great on the bench already. They have a nice starting five in Ford, Jack , Granger, Dunleavy, Rasho/Foster with good depth.

Athletes LOVE coming up to Canada to play, from Antonio Davis, to Vince Carter and probably the most out-spoken character being Alonzo Mourning, what a great guy. In all seriousness, athletes view Canada as some lonely outpost from the rest of the league and this has never made any sense to me. Even as an objective person I would rather play in the city of Toronto than say Oklahoma City, leaving out teammates, playing style etc. It was actually really refreshing to see Jermaine actually wanted to come to Toronto. He was excited to play alongside Bosh, and said we could actually compete for a title next year. Hold up big guy, we're about a year from that, but I like the optimism.

Jermaine actually fits in really well defensively with this team, though any position could concievably be upgraded besides Bosh. Our perimeter defenders have been poor keeping the man in front of them, and O'Neal could now cover as the help defender. When this happens, Bosh (or the other power forward) must switch to O'Neal's man and the rotation needs to start with respect to the other players. Also, O'Neal can block tons of shots, making driving players think twice before coming into the lane. Finally, instead of Bosh battling two and sometimes three offensive players for the defensive rebound, he will have a buddy thats really good at grabbing boards. This will limit second chance points and thats always a good thing. I am forseeing a lot of man-to-man coverage with the occasional shift to a 3-2 zone.

Offensively, he is one who could make our team really dangerous. Teams cannot just gang up on Bosh when he gets the ball on the low post, as he could pass out of it to the open shooter or Jermaine, who would be standing at the top of the paint. At times, Jermaine also may be double teamed, and this could be a case of pick your poison. Either try to contain the two forces (Bosh and O'Neal) down low with extra bodies and leave the shooters open (Calderon, Parker and Kaps) or let the two big man wreak havoc. Also, O'Neal has been average-to-great in grabbing offensive boards, which will give us the ability to reset and grab second chance points.

In essence, O'Neal has the potential to change the entire make-up of the team. He can instill a defensive mentality a la Kevin Garnett while also helping out the spacing for offence, letting Chris Bosh, Calderon and in particular Kapono shine. Raps might not be considered 'soft' anymore with O'Neal patrolling the paint. I want to finish up with an article I read of Jermaine O'Neal in ESPN March 24. He talks about how he had to fight since being drafted and traded from Portland to become 'the man'. One quote that he said stuck out with me. "But the more I play, the more I see being The Man isn't scoring 20 and getting 15 rebounds every night. It's making everyone around you better." I think this is going to be a good year for my Raps.

Thanks to NBA.com and ESPN.com for the stats of the players and the article on Jermaine O'Neal.