Thoughts on Wayne

Even though all Arsenal fans detest him,

How i know I wish Arsenal had a player of his quality.

Fantastic goal. Fantastic technique. Fantastic hunger. Fantastic Player

EPL Fixture Preview: Arsenal vs. Portsmouth

Ground: Emirates Stadium (Arsenal)

Arsenal Injuries: Theo Walcott, Abou Diaby, Thomas Rosicky, Samir Nasri, Lusakz Fabianski

Portsmouth Injuries: Steven Finnan, Linvoy Primus, Hermann Hreidarsson

Arsenal are coming into this game on a high after recording two quality wins over Everton and Celtic on opposing grounds. Arsene Wenger’s men have only conceded one goal so far, and have powered 7 past their opponents. Vermaelen seems to have settled very well into the squad and provides an excellent spine alongside Almunia, Gallas and the increasingly impressive Song. With the new 4-3-3 formation, the team is pressuring well high up the pitch, which creates great counter attacks opportunities.

Portsmouth have lost their first two games; both 1-0 losses to Fulham and Birmingham. They are expected to struggle heavily this season, as they are selling players to service their debt. They have let go of the like of Glen Johnson, Peter Crouch, Sean Davis and Sol Campbell and the squad now struggles to score goals.

Arsenal should fancy their chances against a weak Portsmouth that is low on confidence and lacking a cutting edge. I think they are going to stick with their current 4-3-3 formation and play their regulars, considering they have pretty much wrapped up the Champions League tie.

Formation (4-3-3)

---------------------Almunia-----------------------
Sagna--------Gallas---Vermaelen--------Clichy
----------------Song---Denilson-----------------
---------------------Fabregas---------------------
Bendtner----------------------------------Arshavin
--------------------Van Persie----------------------

I am predicting a 3-0 win for Arsenal.

Raptors Trade: Evaluation

Toronto receives: Amir Johnson + Sonny Weems

Milwaukee receives: Carlos Delfino (sign and trade) + Roko Ukic

Note: because Amir Johnson and Sonny Weems were just involved in a trade less than a month ago, either this transaction is two ‘1 for 1’ deals or it may take up to a month before it is officially completed.

Does this Work Financially?

Amir Johnson 2009/10 salary: $3.941,667
(total contract: $3,941,667)
Sonny Weems 2009/10 salary: $736,420
(total contract: $1,590,809)

*Note: with Sonny Weems he has a two year contract at the minimum with a team early termination clause and a qualifying offer in 2011/2012.

Carlos Delfino 2009/10 salary: $3,666,000
(total contract: ~$11,000,000)
Roko Ukic 2009/10 salary: $1,350,000
(total contract: $2,800,000)

The deal does not work financially if they are traded in two separate ‘1 on 1’ transactions unless further pieces are added. Therefore I believe that this trade will become official once Johnson and Weems are eligible to be traded again.

Why the Raptors Make this Trade?

The Raptors are able to parlay a third-string point guard and a player who - in all likelihood – was not going to play for them this year for a young power forward with good potential and a young swingman for the back of the bench.

Amir Johnson

Amir Johnson was the 56th pick of the 2005 draft, and the last high school player ever drafted. Johnson is a still a young player (at 22) who has the potential to become a good to great player in this league. His PER rating last season was 13.5, which is just below the NBA average of 15. His offensive efficiency was very good last year with an eFg% of .595 and TS% of .608, well above league averages. This would suggest that he tends to take high percentage shots in and around the cylinder. His assist rate % is quite low at 3.4%, but I feel that he will be able to improve that with experience and practice. In addition, he had a fairly low usage rate of 11.1% meaning that he did not have many plays ran for him.

Amir Johnson is also fairly good on the defensive side of the ball. He has a block percentage of 5.1% (2.4 blocks per 36 minutes) and has a defensive rating of 105, which is better than Bargnani’s defensive rating of 109 and Bosh’s of 108.

In terms of offense and defensive, the true value of Johnson can be seen through the ratings differential. His differential of 15 is greater than Bosh’s of 6 and Bargnani’s of -8.

Amir Johnson’s rebounding ability is what really makes this acquisition a very good one. He has an offensive rebounding rate of 13.1 (which is very impressive) and a defensive rebounding rate of 17.2. In general, he grabs around 15% of available rebounds, which is much better than Bargnani’s rate of 9.3% and similar to Bosh’s 14.5%. He instantly becomes one of the best rebounders on this team.

In general, I see Johnson as the second best big man on the Raptors behind Chris Bosh and would excel in a role of grabbing rebounds and playing defense. He is also a good finisher around the rim and tends to take only high percentage shots. He would be an ideal fit in the starting line-up alongside Bosh and Turkolu. However, I do not foresee Triano having the guts to stick Bargnani on the bench. Dave, from NBARoundtable, says his pick and roll defensive is very good and his presence may go a long way to solving this Raptor’s defensive problems.

I have heard concerns saying that Johnson will not play many minutes because many consider him the 5th big man behind Bosh, Bargnani, Evans and Rasho. In my opinion, this is completely untrue because he will prove to be a better player than both Evans and Rasho. Minutes are not going to arbitrary go to the veterans and I firmly believe Johnson will be the first big off the bench at the all-star break, if not earlier.

Sonny Weems

Sonny Weems was the 39th pick of 2008 draft but was traded almost immediately to Denver on draft day. He was injured early last season, and when he recovered he was assigned to Denver’s D-League affiliate in Colorado. He only played 55 minutes, which is hardly a large enough sample to analyze his statistics and I have never seen him play. He seems like an athletic player who may be able to develop into a rotation worthy player down the road.

From this deal, Toronto adds $3,328,087 assuming they were not going to sign Delfino and they are going to keep Weems. Toronto has no contract obligations next year as they have an ETO on Weems and Johnson’s contract is expiring.

Why the Bucks Make this Trade?

The Bucks were heavily stocked at the power forward position with Ersan Ilyasova, Kurt Thomas, and newly signed Hakim Warrick. Milwaukee’s front office must assume that Johnson was not going to play heavy minutes for the team and decided to trade him and a minimum contract for a solid two guard in Carlos Delfino and point guard depth in Roko Ukic. Ukic is insurance if (when?) Sessions leaves to another team as a restricted free agent.

Carlos Delfino

Carlos Delfino did not play in the NBA last year, but played the previous year at Toronto. He was drafted with the 25th pick of the first round by Detroit in the 2003 draft. Looking at his most recent season in the NBA, on offense he shot a TS% of .537 and an eFg% of .492, which are both slightly below the league average. He had a good assist rate of 11.1% and had a pretty high usage rate of 19.0%. Overall, he was a slightly inefficient scorer who made the pass when needed.

On defense, Delfino had a blocking percentage of 0.5% and a steal percentage of 1.9%. From a subjective standpoint, he seemed like a below-average to average defender, who tried to keep his defender ahead of him but should not be considered elite.

Looking at the rating differential, Delfino is +1, which is okay. His defensive rating is good but his offensive rating of 107 is poor. In comparison of some Raptors last year, Parker posted a rate of -6, Marion posted a rate of -3 and Moon has a rate of -1. So in comparison, he would have performed better than some of the other Raptor swingmen of last season.

Rebounding-wise, Delfino is one of best at his position. His total rebounding rate of 11.0 was better than Bargnani’s rate last year! In comparison, Parker had a rate of 7.1, Moon had a rate of 10.6 and Marion had a rate 13.8. He is a very good rebounder for his position.

Delfino was not going to sign for the Raptors because of the limited minutes behind Turkolu and the other swingmen. There was no guarantee that he would have had a starting spot and Delfino would not have left his Russian team for a rotation spot with less money. I believe Scott Skiles would give him a large role on the Bucks team and this must have been discussed before Delfino would consider the sign-and-trade.

Roko Ukic

Roko Ukic was a second round pick by the Raptors in 2005 with the 41st pick. His first year in the league was last year with the Raptors. Ukic is a very poor offensive player with a TS% of .430 and eFg% of .397, which is among the worst in the league. His assist rate is 27.2 % which is very good but it may be largely because he deferred to his teammates when he played. He had a high usage rate, largely because he is a point guard, but surprising considering his poor shooting percentages.

Ukic was also pretty poor on defense with a steal rate of 1.8 and an assist rate of 0.2. In comparison, Calderon rates for those two measures was 1.7 and 0.2 respectively, which shows that our point guard tandem was very, very poor defensively. Some subjective reports have said that he is a good defensive player with good tools, but I haven’t seen this defensive quality yet.

What was really telling was his ratings differential. Ukic had a very ugly -20 (93 on offense and 113 on defense) indicating that he was poor offensively and defensively. For comparison, Calderon had a rate of +11.

In terms of rebounding, Ukic has a total rebounding rate of 4.9%, which is below-average for his position.

My opinion of Ukic is not very positive. He has shown to be a very weak offensive and defensive player with below-average rebounding rates. He may improve with more familiarity of the league, but he is already 25, and has way too much to work on for him to even be considered a rotation quality player.

Conclusions

I think this is a good trade for Toronto which could even become great or even excellent depending on how much playing time they give to Johnson. Toronto has managed to trade two players who are out of their rotation into a player who should be considered their second-best big man. Great trade for the Raptors.

Grade for Toronto: A

I think this is an average trade for Milwaukee. I think Johnson would’ve been better than their other options at power forward, but they do have enough depth to compensate for him. Milwaukee has Michael Redd, Joe Alexander and Charlie Bell who play Delfino’s position and he might round out their wing players. Delfino would provide average defending, below average scoring and great rebounding from the two spot. With respect to Ukic, I do not think he will play much, I still think he will be a third string pg (behind Ridnour and Jennings). If I was a Milwaukee fan, I would have rather not have signed Warrick, and keep Johnson as my starting power forward. But, in general, they did get a rotation quality player in Delfino for a good price.

Grade for Milwaukee: C+

Game Recap: Arsenal vs. Everton

Arsenal players are in a celebratory mood after Gallas scores the opening goal in the 43' minute.

Score:

Arsenal 2 - 0 Celtic

Scoring Summary:

Gallas 43'

Caldwell (OG) 70'

Good performance by the Gunners yesterday against a very tricky opponent. Arsenal lined up in the same 4-3-3 formation that was used in the Everton game, and luckily Cesc Fabregas was fit for the game. Both goals had a measure of luck, the first much more so than the latter, but Arsenal seemed good value for the win. At the beginning of the game, Arsenal dominated possession but Celtic were pressuring well and no quarter was being asked or given. Much of the game was being played in the midfield in the early going and the pressing was working effectively for both teams.

Around the quarter hour mark, Andrei Arshavin fired in a shot after a deflection off the Celtic player but he was rightfully called offside. Arshavin was largely anonymous in the game, but did have some good moments of running and kept possession well. The game really opened up when Arsenal scored their first goal. A Gary Caldwell foul led to a free-kick opportunity from about 30 yards out. Robin Van Persie rolled it for Fabregas who whipped in a shot. Arthur Boruc seemed to have had it covered had it not been for a lucky deflection off the back of Gallas into the far post. That is two goals for him in two games, and if Arsenal continue to get goals from unlikely sources and from set plays, it will go a long way to beating negative opponents.

Celtic played a formation with Aiden McGready as a long striker and he played well in that role, but it seemed like manager Tony Mowbry played too defensive a lineup at home. Celtic have had success against top European sides in this competition, but the atmosphere at Parkhead was not enough to boost this side. Scott Brown and Georgios Samaras played wide for width and Celtic had some success playing through ball behind our full-backs, but there was not enough pressure for a sustained attack.

Possibly the closest moment when Celtic came to scoring was on the counter after a broken set play. McGeady skipped around an Arsenal defender on the left side and played a wonderful chip over last man Clichy to the onrushing Brown who seemed to have a wide open volley from 5 feet but Thomas Vermaelen sprinted the entire pitch and manage to break up the play at the critical moment. I can not be more impressed with how Vermaelen has adapted to this Arsenal squad. His attacking of the first ball seems to be an ideal complement to William Gallas' method of sweeping up the mess. Also, Arsene Wenger metioned Vermaelen in his post-game chat, saying:

'I believe he has a good mix of the physical and technical for a centre-back and
it is interesting to have a left-footed player because he gives you angles for
the pass which are very important for the midfielder."

He rounds off a very good defense, but depth in central defense remains a concern. We may need one more player who can play central and right back in case of injury and when Eboue goes off to the ACN.

The second half began with Arsenal controlling the ball with more space, as Celtic opened up to find that second goal. Celtic changed their formation by introducing striker Scott McDonald 15 minutes into the second half, but it proved be ineffective. It was obvious when watching the game that Arsenal's class was far above that of Celtic and Celtic didn't really have a life-line back in the game.

Arsenal sealed the game and likely the tie with a goal in the 71th minute. Fresh substitute Abou Diaby made a good run in central midfield before finding Clichy on the left. Clichy played a good low cross which Caldwell poled into his own net. The Celtic skipper had a very poor game with both of his mistakes directly attributed for the goals.

Arsenal just passed the ball around and the final ten minutes became a training exercise. Song played a very good game, intercepting passes and making intelligent tackles. What impressed me the most was his passing, where he really did spring a few attacks. If Song is able to improve on his ball control and passing, he could become a very good defensive midfielder for Arsenal.

African Cup of Nations

This, however, brings a concern for Arsenal as he is going to leave for the ACN this winter. I am expecting Wenger not to buy any additional players for midfield and I think that he is going to play a middle three of:

Nasri-----Cesc

----Denilson---

with Rosicky another option for the front two. This formation is more aggressive than the one being used right now, but I think Wenger is modelling the central part of the pitch after Barcelona's three and having two creative and good dribbling midfielders with one ball-winning defensive midfielder.

Rosicky may also replace Bendtner on the right giving a formation of (during the ACN):

-----------------Almunia-----------------------

Sagna-------Gallas---Vermaelen---------Clichy

----------------Denilson-----------------------

-------------Cesc-------Nasri------------------

Rosicky-------------------------------Arshavin

-----------------Van Persie--------------------

which is a fantastic lineup. Substitute Denilson with Song and that would be my preferred lineup for the 4-3-3 formation.

Even though we have won two games, I still feel that the 4-4-2 would be more effective for this Arsenal team. Most of our goals have come of set-plays and the 4-3-3 really dampers the ability of the top three to roam into their favourable positions. Arshavin and Van Persie have been largely non-existent in the first two games, and this will have to change in the upcoming weeks.

Champions League Fixture Preview: Arsenal vs. Celtic

Ground: Celtic Park (Parkhead)
Arsenal Injuries: Theo Walcott, Abou Diaby, Samir Nasri, Thomas Rosicky, Johan Djoruru, Lukasz Fabianski
Celtic Injuries: Glenn Loovens, Shaun Maloneym, Stephen McManus

Arsenal travel north to Glasgow today to face Celtic, one of the two teams in the Scottish Old Firm. Celtic have just started their season and are up against a in-form Arsenal, who have just destroyed Everton 6-1 and are surely brimming with confidence. Apparently the manager of Celtic has a “cunning plan” to try to stop Arsenal, but he must feel that a tie or even a small loss would be an ideal outcome in this match.

Some notable players at Celtic include: Samaras (formerly of Man City), Scott Brown (a promising talent), Aiden McGeady, and goaltender Artur Boruc. They have some talent on the team, but I doubt it would be enough to seriously threaten Arsenal.

Arsenal still have a large number of injuries and there have been reports that Fabregas may have picked up a knock last game. He is important to provide the creativity to break down negative opponents and hopefully be fit for the game.

Although the game is important, I think Wenger may play some of the younger players because of injury concerns and to provide experience. I think Wenger may stick with the 4-3-3, and my predicted line-up would be:

-------------------------Almunia--------------------------
Sagna----------Vermaelen----Gallas-----------Clichy
-----------------------------Song-------------------------
---------------------Denilson—Ramsey----------------
Arshavin-----------------------------------------Bendtner
-------------------------------RVP-------------------------

I am predicting a 2-0 for the Gunners.