Friday, August 21, 2009

EPL Fixture Preview: Arsenal vs. Portsmouth

Ground: Emirates Stadium (Arsenal)

Arsenal Injuries: Theo Walcott, Abou Diaby, Thomas Rosicky, Samir Nasri, Lusakz Fabianski

Portsmouth Injuries: Steven Finnan, Linvoy Primus, Hermann Hreidarsson

Arsenal are coming into this game on a high after recording two quality wins over Everton and Celtic on opposing grounds. Arsene Wenger’s men have only conceded one goal so far, and have powered 7 past their opponents. Vermaelen seems to have settled very well into the squad and provides an excellent spine alongside Almunia, Gallas and the increasingly impressive Song. With the new 4-3-3 formation, the team is pressuring well high up the pitch, which creates great counter attacks opportunities.

Portsmouth have lost their first two games; both 1-0 losses to Fulham and Birmingham. They are expected to struggle heavily this season, as they are selling players to service their debt. They have let go of the like of Glen Johnson, Peter Crouch, Sean Davis and Sol Campbell and the squad now struggles to score goals.

Arsenal should fancy their chances against a weak Portsmouth that is low on confidence and lacking a cutting edge. I think they are going to stick with their current 4-3-3 formation and play their regulars, considering they have pretty much wrapped up the Champions League tie.

Formation (4-3-3)

---------------------Almunia-----------------------
Sagna--------Gallas---Vermaelen--------Clichy
----------------Song---Denilson-----------------
---------------------Fabregas---------------------
Bendtner----------------------------------Arshavin
--------------------Van Persie----------------------

I am predicting a 3-0 win for Arsenal.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Raptors Trade: Evaluation


Toronto receives: Amir Johnson + Sonny Weems

Milwaukee receives: Carlos Delfino (sign and trade) + Roko Ukic

Note: because Amir Johnson and Sonny Weems were just involved in a trade less than a month ago, either this transaction is two ‘1 for 1’ deals or it may take up to a month before it is officially completed.

Does this Work Financially?

Amir Johnson 2009/10 salary: $3.941,667
(total contract: $3,941,667)
Sonny Weems 2009/10 salary: $736,420
(total contract: $1,590,809)

*Note: with Sonny Weems he has a two year contract at the minimum with a team early termination clause and a qualifying offer in 2011/2012.

Carlos Delfino 2009/10 salary: $3,666,000
(total contract: ~$11,000,000)
Roko Ukic 2009/10 salary: $1,350,000
(total contract: $2,800,000)

The deal does not work financially if they are traded in two separate ‘1 on 1’ transactions unless further pieces are added. Therefore I believe that this trade will become official once Johnson and Weems are eligible to be traded again.

Why the Raptors Make this Trade?

The Raptors are able to parlay a third-string point guard and a player who - in all likelihood – was not going to play for them this year for a young power forward with good potential and a young swingman for the back of the bench.

Amir Johnson

Amir Johnson was the 56th pick of the 2005 draft, and the last high school player ever drafted. Johnson is a still a young player (at 22) who has the potential to become a good to great player in this league. His PER rating last season was 13.5, which is just below the NBA average of 15. His offensive efficiency was very good last year with an eFg% of .595 and TS% of .608, well above league averages. This would suggest that he tends to take high percentage shots in and around the cylinder. His assist rate % is quite low at 3.4%, but I feel that he will be able to improve that with experience and practice. In addition, he had a fairly low usage rate of 11.1% meaning that he did not have many plays ran for him.

Amir Johnson is also fairly good on the defensive side of the ball. He has a block percentage of 5.1% (2.4 blocks per 36 minutes) and has a defensive rating of 105, which is better than Bargnani’s defensive rating of 109 and Bosh’s of 108.

In terms of offense and defensive, the true value of Johnson can be seen through the ratings differential. His differential of 15 is greater than Bosh’s of 6 and Bargnani’s of -8.

Amir Johnson’s rebounding ability is what really makes this acquisition a very good one. He has an offensive rebounding rate of 13.1 (which is very impressive) and a defensive rebounding rate of 17.2. In general, he grabs around 15% of available rebounds, which is much better than Bargnani’s rate of 9.3% and similar to Bosh’s 14.5%. He instantly becomes one of the best rebounders on this team.

In general, I see Johnson as the second best big man on the Raptors behind Chris Bosh and would excel in a role of grabbing rebounds and playing defense. He is also a good finisher around the rim and tends to take only high percentage shots. He would be an ideal fit in the starting line-up alongside Bosh and Turkolu. However, I do not foresee Triano having the guts to stick Bargnani on the bench. Dave, from NBARoundtable, says his pick and roll defensive is very good and his presence may go a long way to solving this Raptor’s defensive problems.

I have heard concerns saying that Johnson will not play many minutes because many consider him the 5th big man behind Bosh, Bargnani, Evans and Rasho. In my opinion, this is completely untrue because he will prove to be a better player than both Evans and Rasho. Minutes are not going to arbitrary go to the veterans and I firmly believe Johnson will be the first big off the bench at the all-star break, if not earlier.

Sonny Weems

Sonny Weems was the 39th pick of 2008 draft but was traded almost immediately to Denver on draft day. He was injured early last season, and when he recovered he was assigned to Denver’s D-League affiliate in Colorado. He only played 55 minutes, which is hardly a large enough sample to analyze his statistics and I have never seen him play. He seems like an athletic player who may be able to develop into a rotation worthy player down the road.

From this deal, Toronto adds $3,328,087 assuming they were not going to sign Delfino and they are going to keep Weems. Toronto has no contract obligations next year as they have an ETO on Weems and Johnson’s contract is expiring.

Why the Bucks Make this Trade?


The Bucks were heavily stocked at the power forward position with Ersan Ilyasova, Kurt Thomas, and newly signed Hakim Warrick. Milwaukee’s front office must assume that Johnson was not going to play heavy minutes for the team and decided to trade him and a minimum contract for a solid two guard in Carlos Delfino and point guard depth in Roko Ukic. Ukic is insurance if (when?) Sessions leaves to another team as a restricted free agent.

Carlos Delfino

Carlos Delfino did not play in the NBA last year, but played the previous year at Toronto. He was drafted with the 25th pick of the first round by Detroit in the 2003 draft. Looking at his most recent season in the NBA, on offense he shot a TS% of .537 and an eFg% of .492, which are both slightly below the league average. He had a good assist rate of 11.1% and had a pretty high usage rate of 19.0%. Overall, he was a slightly inefficient scorer who made the pass when needed.

On defense, Delfino had a blocking percentage of 0.5% and a steal percentage of 1.9%. From a subjective standpoint, he seemed like a below-average to average defender, who tried to keep his defender ahead of him but should not be considered elite.

Looking at the rating differential, Delfino is +1, which is okay. His defensive rating is good but his offensive rating of 107 is poor. In comparison of some Raptors last year, Parker posted a rate of -6, Marion posted a rate of -3 and Moon has a rate of -1. So in comparison, he would have performed better than some of the other Raptor swingmen of last season.

Rebounding-wise, Delfino is one of best at his position. His total rebounding rate of 11.0 was better than Bargnani’s rate last year! In comparison, Parker had a rate of 7.1, Moon had a rate of 10.6 and Marion had a rate 13.8. He is a very good rebounder for his position.

Delfino was not going to sign for the Raptors because of the limited minutes behind Turkolu and the other swingmen. There was no guarantee that he would have had a starting spot and Delfino would not have left his Russian team for a rotation spot with less money. I believe Scott Skiles would give him a large role on the Bucks team and this must have been discussed before Delfino would consider the sign-and-trade.

Roko Ukic

Roko Ukic was a second round pick by the Raptors in 2005 with the 41st pick. His first year in the league was last year with the Raptors. Ukic is a very poor offensive player with a TS% of .430 and eFg% of .397, which is among the worst in the league. His assist rate is 27.2 % which is very good but it may be largely because he deferred to his teammates when he played. He had a high usage rate, largely because he is a point guard, but surprising considering his poor shooting percentages.

Ukic was also pretty poor on defense with a steal rate of 1.8 and an assist rate of 0.2. In comparison, Calderon rates for those two measures was 1.7 and 0.2 respectively, which shows that our point guard tandem was very, very poor defensively. Some subjective reports have said that he is a good defensive player with good tools, but I haven’t seen this defensive quality yet.

What was really telling was his ratings differential. Ukic had a very ugly -20 (93 on offense and 113 on defense) indicating that he was poor offensively and defensively. For comparison, Calderon had a rate of +11.

In terms of rebounding, Ukic has a total rebounding rate of 4.9%, which is below-average for his position.

My opinion of Ukic is not very positive. He has shown to be a very weak offensive and defensive player with below-average rebounding rates. He may improve with more familiarity of the league, but he is already 25, and has way too much to work on for him to even be considered a rotation quality player.

Conclusions

I think this is a good trade for Toronto which could even become great or even excellent depending on how much playing time they give to Johnson. Toronto has managed to trade two players who are out of their rotation into a player who should be considered their second-best big man. Great trade for the Raptors.

Grade for Toronto: A

I think this is an average trade for Milwaukee. I think Johnson would’ve been better than their other options at power forward, but they do have enough depth to compensate for him. Milwaukee has Michael Redd, Joe Alexander and Charlie Bell who play Delfino’s position and he might round out their wing players. Delfino would provide average defending, below average scoring and great rebounding from the two spot. With respect to Ukic, I do not think he will play much, I still think he will be a third string pg (behind Ridnour and Jennings). If I was a Milwaukee fan, I would have rather not have signed Warrick, and keep Johnson as my starting power forward. But, in general, they did get a rotation quality player in Delfino for a good price.

Grade for Milwaukee: C+

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Game Recap: Arsenal vs. Everton


Arsenal players are in a celebratory mood after Gallas scores the opening goal in the 43' minute.

Score:

Arsenal 2 - 0 Celtic


Scoring Summary:

Gallas 43'

Caldwell (OG) 70'


Good performance by the Gunners yesterday against a very tricky opponent. Arsenal lined up in the same 4-3-3 formation that was used in the Everton game, and luckily Cesc Fabregas was fit for the game. Both goals had a measure of luck, the first much more so than the latter, but Arsenal seemed good value for the win. At the beginning of the game, Arsenal dominated possession but Celtic were pressuring well and no quarter was being asked or given. Much of the game was being played in the midfield in the early going and the pressing was working effectively for both teams.


Around the quarter hour mark, Andrei Arshavin fired in a shot after a deflection off the Celtic player but he was rightfully called offside. Arshavin was largely anonymous in the game, but did have some good moments of running and kept possession well. The game really opened up when Arsenal scored their first goal. A Gary Caldwell foul led to a free-kick opportunity from about 30 yards out. Robin Van Persie rolled it for Fabregas who whipped in a shot. Arthur Boruc seemed to have had it covered had it not been for a lucky deflection off the back of Gallas into the far post. That is two goals for him in two games, and if Arsenal continue to get goals from unlikely sources and from set plays, it will go a long way to beating negative opponents.


Celtic played a formation with Aiden McGready as a long striker and he played well in that role, but it seemed like manager Tony Mowbry played too defensive a lineup at home. Celtic have had success against top European sides in this competition, but the atmosphere at Parkhead was not enough to boost this side. Scott Brown and Georgios Samaras played wide for width and Celtic had some success playing through ball behind our full-backs, but there was not enough pressure for a sustained attack.


Possibly the closest moment when Celtic came to scoring was on the counter after a broken set play. McGeady skipped around an Arsenal defender on the left side and played a wonderful chip over last man Clichy to the onrushing Brown who seemed to have a wide open volley from 5 feet but Thomas Vermaelen sprinted the entire pitch and manage to break up the play at the critical moment. I can not be more impressed with how Vermaelen has adapted to this Arsenal squad. His attacking of the first ball seems to be an ideal complement to William Gallas' method of sweeping up the mess. Also, Arsene Wenger metioned Vermaelen in his post-game chat, saying:


'I believe he has a good mix of the physical and technical for a centre-back and
it is interesting to have a left-footed player because he gives you angles for
the pass which are very important for the midfielder."


He rounds off a very good defense, but depth in central defense remains a concern. We may need one more player who can play central and right back in case of injury and when Eboue goes off to the ACN.


The second half began with Arsenal controlling the ball with more space, as Celtic opened up to find that second goal. Celtic changed their formation by introducing striker Scott McDonald 15 minutes into the second half, but it proved be ineffective. It was obvious when watching the game that Arsenal's class was far above that of Celtic and Celtic didn't really have a life-line back in the game.


Arsenal sealed the game and likely the tie with a goal in the 71th minute. Fresh substitute Abou Diaby made a good run in central midfield before finding Clichy on the left. Clichy played a good low cross which Caldwell poled into his own net. The Celtic skipper had a very poor game with both of his mistakes directly attributed for the goals.


Arsenal just passed the ball around and the final ten minutes became a training exercise. Song played a very good game, intercepting passes and making intelligent tackles. What impressed me the most was his passing, where he really did spring a few attacks. If Song is able to improve on his ball control and passing, he could become a very good defensive midfielder for Arsenal.


African Cup of Nations


This, however, brings a concern for Arsenal as he is going to leave for the ACN this winter. I am expecting Wenger not to buy any additional players for midfield and I think that he is going to play a middle three of:

Nasri-----Cesc

----Denilson---


with Rosicky another option for the front two. This formation is more aggressive than the one being used right now, but I think Wenger is modelling the central part of the pitch after Barcelona's three and having two creative and good dribbling midfielders with one ball-winning defensive midfielder.


Rosicky may also replace Bendtner on the right giving a formation of (during the ACN):


-----------------Almunia-----------------------

Sagna-------Gallas---Vermaelen---------Clichy

----------------Denilson-----------------------

-------------Cesc-------Nasri------------------

Rosicky-------------------------------Arshavin

-----------------Van Persie--------------------


which is a fantastic lineup. Substitute Denilson with Song and that would be my preferred lineup for the 4-3-3 formation.


Even though we have won two games, I still feel that the 4-4-2 would be more effective for this Arsenal team. Most of our goals have come of set-plays and the 4-3-3 really dampers the ability of the top three to roam into their favourable positions. Arshavin and Van Persie have been largely non-existent in the first two games, and this will have to change in the upcoming weeks.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Champions League Fixture Preview: Arsenal vs. Celtic


Ground: Celtic Park (Parkhead)
Arsenal Injuries: Theo Walcott, Abou Diaby, Samir Nasri, Thomas Rosicky, Johan Djoruru, Lukasz Fabianski
Celtic Injuries: Glenn Loovens, Shaun Maloneym, Stephen McManus

Arsenal travel north to Glasgow today to face Celtic, one of the two teams in the Scottish Old Firm. Celtic have just started their season and are up against a in-form Arsenal, who have just destroyed Everton 6-1 and are surely brimming with confidence. Apparently the manager of Celtic has a “cunning plan” to try to stop Arsenal, but he must feel that a tie or even a small loss would be an ideal outcome in this match.

Some notable players at Celtic include: Samaras (formerly of Man City), Scott Brown (a promising talent), Aiden McGeady, and goaltender Artur Boruc. They have some talent on the team, but I doubt it would be enough to seriously threaten Arsenal.

Arsenal still have a large number of injuries and there have been reports that Fabregas may have picked up a knock last game. He is important to provide the creativity to break down negative opponents and hopefully be fit for the game.

Although the game is important, I think Wenger may play some of the younger players because of injury concerns and to provide experience. I think Wenger may stick with the 4-3-3, and my predicted line-up would be:

-------------------------Almunia--------------------------
Sagna----------Vermaelen----Gallas-----------Clichy
-----------------------------Song-------------------------
---------------------Denilson—Ramsey----------------
Arshavin-----------------------------------------Bendtner
-------------------------------RVP-------------------------

I am predicting a 2-0 for the Gunners.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Game Recap: Arsenal vs. Everton

The players celebrating Eduardo's goal

Score:
Arsenal 6 - 1 Everton

Scoring Summary:
Denilson 26'
Vermaelen 37'
Gallas 41'
Fabregas 48'
Fabregas 70'
Eduardo 89'


What an impressive win for Arsenal! I had predicted a 2-1 win for the Gunners, and I felt that might have been pushing luck as Everton at Goodison are tough to beat. However, that was not the case as the team came out and gave a masterful performance and fully deserved the 6-1 win. The team had 18 shots and bossed the game with 54% possession. The team played with great fluidity, passed extremely well and finished with great precision. Thomas Vermaelen made his debut and fit in like he has play playing with this team for ages.

Arsene Wenger surprised me and actually decided to play the 4-3-3 formation. This is probably because of the number of injuries to our midfielders and its success in the preseason. The formation for Arsenal was:

----------------Almunia-----------------
Sagna----Gallas---Vermaelen----Clichy
----------Denilson--Song--------------
------------------Cesc-----------------
Arshavin---------------------Bendtner
----------------Van Persie-------------

which was what Arsene was toying with in pre-season. The game started a bit tentatively and both teams were a bit careless. However just after the 20 minute mark, Bendtner juked by a couple of defenders on the left side and laid it square to Fabregas who played a square touch pass to Denilson who curled a sweet 20 yarder into the top left corner. Denilson was playing a bit shaky before the goal and this seemed to settle him.

The team started to play with a bit more style but the subsequent goal was one of the most un-Arsenal like in recent memory. Van Persie curled a sweet free kick and Vermaelen scored a free-header at the far post. 2-0 up and Arsenal are cruising. If Arsenal are able to add proficiency at set plays as a successful way method to score, then we may be able to break open games where the opponents are content to sit 10 behind the ball. The third goal was similar to the second, this time Fabregas whipping it in and Gallas giving it a bit of a touch past a hapless Everton. Their defending on set pieces - usually very strong - was lacklustre.

The fourth and fifth goals were scored by Fabregas drifting up from midfield and drilling shots from range. The fourth goal was beautifully set up from RVP as he nut-megged a defender and Fabregas scored through Howard's legs. The fifth goal was on the counter as Almunia threw it out to Fabregas who ran the entire pitch, evaded the half-hearted Fellanini tackle and scored from 20 yards out. Great goal and if we are able to supply goals from midfield this upcoming season, it will put less pressure on the forwards and the loss of Toure and Adebayor will not be as severely felt as some predicted.

The sixth goal was a cheeky rebound goal by Eduardo after Arshavin toyed around with the Everton defense and toe-poked a shot off the post. Eduardo made his first league debut since his awful injury and looked sharp. His finishing will be important this upcoming season off the bench to break down negative opponents.

Arsene Wenger was very satisfied with the result saying:

'It strikes me the team are maturing at just the right time, and when you look at the players who could still come in, it is clear we are not short of firepower,' he said.

'We were ruled out as title contenders before the game, but now everyone will have us down as super favourites.

This is a very good result for the opening fixture and will give the team belief and strength for the upcoming Champions League match against Celtic on Tueday. It will be interesting to see if Arsene will stick with the 4-3-3 or adjust to a more defensive 4-5-1 or traditional 4-4-2.

Match preview of Arsenal - Celtic tomorrow!

Friday, August 14, 2009

EPL Fixture Preview: Arsenal vs. Everton


Ground:
Goodison Park (Everton's)
Arsenal Injuries: Theo Walcott, Samir Nasri, Thomas Rosicky, Abou Diaby, Johan Djororu, Lukasz Fabianski
Everton Injuries: Jo, Mikel Arteta, Phil Jagielka, Yakubu

Oh the new season is beginning tomorrow and I, for one, am very excited for it. With Ronaldo and Tevez leaving Old Trafford, Alsono leaving Anfield and Man City spending like mad, this season promises to be one of the most competitive in recently memory. Arsenal have lost a couple of first-team members (Toure and Adebayor) but have strengthened their defense with the addition of Thomas Vermaelen.

Everton come into this season with high hopes of trying to break into the top-4 and achieving a Champions League spot. They have come 5th the last couple of years and under their manager Moyes, have managed to even qualify for the Champions League four years ago. They are a very hard working team and scoring goals from set plays is a major plus for them because of Fellaini, Cahill and Lescott. They never give up and this is evident with them scoring 15 of their 55 goals in the last 15 minutes of a game. The team is more pragmatic than offensively minded with 14 of their 17 wins coming by 1 or 2 goal margins. The leading scorers last year for the team were both midfielders; Cahill and Fellaini with 8 apiece.

Arsenal are coming into the season with many pundits writing them off, but they have the potential to challenge for trophies on all fronts. The loss of Toure was replaced with Vermaelen and Adebayor will be covered with Eduardo coming back and the promotion of Bendtner. There are some injury concerns, but the team seems well-stocked to compete even with all of the players out. Arsenal had a relatively poor season, where they were never really Premier League title contenders, but more-so competiting with Aston-Villa for the final Champions League spot. Arsenal was very strong going forward, scoring 68 goals in the EPL (the same as Manchester United), but was often poor on the defensive end, allowing 38 goals, much higher than EPL winning Manchester United’s 24. Improving our defensive record would go a long way towards making a strong push for the title.

This game will likely have Arsenal controlling most of the possession with Everton trying to nick a goal on the counter or on a set piece. It is going to be a feisty affair, and I am predicting that the score will end 2-1 for Arsenal.

Predicted Arsenal Line-up

-----------------Almunia------------------
Sagna----Gallas----Vermaelen------Clichy
Arshavin—Cesc---Denilson--------Eboue
-----------Bendtner—RVP----------------


Predicted Everton Line-up

------------------Howard--------------
Hibbert—Lescott------Yobo ----------Neville
Pienaar—Cahill-----Rodwell----------Osman
---------------Fellaini-----------------------
---------------------Saha--------------------

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Evaluating Arsenal's Off-season Transfers

Arsenal had several significant changes this off-season by selling some of their key players and adding one big money signing. The purpose of this article is to examine the incoming signings and how it affects their position and give it a grade and also looking at the players leaving and rationalizing if it was the right time to sell. This article will also look briefly at formations but a more in-depth article concerning that will be coming in the near future.

Signings

Thomas Vermaelen – from Ajax - 10 – 12 million pounds.

Arsenal’s lone signing of this transfer window was Vermaelen of Ajax. The Ajax’s captain is a Belgium international and is a 5’10 central defense man who is 23 years old. He has played in Europe every year so far, so he has some experience in the Champions League. I have not seen him play, so I do not think it would be fair to comment on him, but he is an international and captain and apparently has good aerial ability despite his height. He will probably replace the outgoing Kolo Toure and form a partnership with William Gallas.

Grade: C+

I can not rate this player too highly considering that I have never seen him play, has yet to adjust to the Premier League and is quite pricey for a defenseman. Arsene Wenger is usually very astute at spotting talent, but his record with purchasing defense is mediocre at best (some notable bad buys include Cygan, Senderos Silvestre)

Outgoing

Adebayor – Man City - 25 million pounds.

Adebayor must have been one of the most-hated players at Arsenal last year after courting the services of AC Milan last year. When he arrived in 2005 winter transfer window, he was a raw attacking player who seemed willing to work on improving his skills. He scored 4 goals in 12 Premier League game that season, 12 in all competitions the next season play with Henry, scored 29 goals the year after and finally scoring 20 goals in all competition last season. He has flashes of brilliance (the volley against Totenham last year and the half-bicycle against Villareal spring to mind) but more often than not, he likes to stray offside and his goal record is very poor for the service he receives. He was a good target man with a terrible first touch and opinions were always divided with him. His workrate decreased when he signed his last Arsenal contract and he always did seem out of place around the tight ball-control midfielders.

Grade: A –

This is a great price for Adebayor as I don’t think he was ever worth this much. Also, with Ade going off to the ACN this season, it made sense to sell now. If we start to play Arshavin in the second striker role and RVP as the lead forward, it may lead to better ball control and finishing. However, Wenger’s insistence on selling his first team squad every year brings about discontinuity and it will take time for Arsenal to adjust to the new playing style and formation.

Kolo Toure – Man City - 16 million pounds.

Kolo Toure was our last remaining player of our “invincible” season and he was often considered the heart of Arsenal. He always gave everything to the team and was loved by the supporters of the club. Bought from the African team AESC for only 250,000 pounds, he started as a utility player and was slowly groomed to the central defense position. He was very raw at first, but extremely hungry and that desire translated all over the pitch in the form of tough tackling and wild shots. Always volunteering to take the 40 yard free-kicks, he exemplified the youthful enthusiasm of his Arsenal teams. However, coming into the last few seasons, he started to suffer from a loss of form, injuries and illnesses. He had disagreements with his central partner Gallas and allegedly submitted a transfer request last January. Man City has been trying to find a defensive anchor and they found a pretty good one in Toure.

Grade: B

This is good business again for an unhappy player who is arguably not even first choice anymore. However, for sentimental and leadership reasons, this should’ve not been a sale. Toure provides that winning experience and Arsenal clearly was defined by him. Also, he would have provided quality depth at both the backup central and right defense position.

Quick Thoughts on Formations

I think Wenger will experiment with the 4-3-3 because it allows for more creative players and some central midfield solidarity but will stick to his traditional 4-4-2. Arsenal’s pass and move style is perfectly suited to the 4-2-2 because of the interchangability of the positions. The 4-3-3 is more rigid and has more defined roles by the formation because each position would have very specific responsibilities. Another reason why the 4-3-3 would not work is because the wingers need to stay wide to provide width and all of Arsenal’s wide players (beside Walcott) like to drift inside.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Predicting the Toronto Raptor's Offensive Performance for Next Season

Yesterday I wrote a piece of how the offense for the Raptors performed last year (see below). Today, I want to evaluate the players coming in, and predict how individual and the team offense will do compared to the NBA.

The Raptors had many players come in this season, most notably: Hedo Turkolu, Jarrett Jack, Marco Bellinelli, Rasho, Antoine Wright and Reggie Evans. I am not going to include DeMar DeRozan because I do not have any stats and any college stats would be skewed because it is a different league (college).

Hedo Turkolu was the Raptors prize free-agent signing coming from the Orlando Magic. He was part of a four-team trade which allowed us to stay above the salary cap and thus, keep our exceptions. He was considered by many as one of the offensive focal points of a finals caliber team and was usually the Magic’s crunch time scorer.

Hedo shot a .541 true shooting percentage (TS %) and .478 efficient field goal percentage (eFg %) on a usage rate of 23.0. As mentioned yesterday, the league averages for TS% and eFg% are .541 and .500 respectively. So judging from these numbers, Hedo Turkolu was a below-average efficient offensive player but Hedo’s value on the offensive end is a little greater because he is capable of being a crunch-time scorer and had a very good assist percentage (AST %) of 23%. On the other hand, he was playing with good offensive players like Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson/Rafer Alston. So in general, I would rate him as a lateral efficient offensive player. Last year at this position, we used a combination of Jamario Moon, Andrea Bargnani and Shawn Marion. Looking at the statistics, I would rate Moon as an above average offensively efficient player, Bargnani as an above average offensively efficient player and Marion as a below average offensively efficient player*. So in general, I would rate this switch to Hedo Turkolu on the offensive end as lateral or at best small advantage over last year. The advantages of Hedo are his playmaking capabilities and crunch-time scoring but he also has drawbacks such as a lower shooting percentage at a higher usage rate.

Jarrett Jack was a free-agent signing from Indiana for our backup point guard and shooting guard positions. He signed a lucrative 4 year 20 million dollar contract that the Pacers decided not to match. He is considered a heady point guard that is capable of driving and can shoot reasonably well.

Jack shot at around average with TS% .554 and eFg% of .498 on a usage rate of 18.5 last year. These are reasonable numbers for a back-up pg/sg. His assist % is 18.6 percent, which is around the league average. This is going to be a definite upgrade over last year as Roko Ukic had an extremely poor efficiency, Will Solomon had poor offensive efficiency and Anthony Parker was below average offensively^. The assist rate was high for the incumbents but that was largely because they were instructed to just make entry-passes and not actually create on offense.
Marco Bellinelli was acquired from Golden State for Devean George and cash considerations. He is a willing shooter who is very streaky and is sometimes defensively liable. He is in the rotation, probably the 2nd or 3rd wing off of the bench.

Last year in Golden State, Bellinelli shot TS% .547 and eFg% of .524, which is slightly above average. In addition, he had an assist rate of 15.3 and a usage of 19.3. For a back up wing, these are solid numbers and offensively he will not be a liability out on the floor. He will be a slight upgrade over Jason Kapono and Joey Graham offensively#.

Rasho was acquired with the LLE from the Indiana Pacers. He was traded in part last offseason for Jermaine O’Neal. He is a capable veteran who is able to score the baseline jumper. His play is adequate but questions of speed have always surrounded him. He shot TS% .524 and eFg% .513 last year on a usage rate of 18.5. These are slightly below average numbers but reasonable for a backup center.

Antoine Wright was also acquired in the trade which sent Shawn Marion to Dallas. I have not seen him play, but reports say that he is very athletic and good defensively. Looking at his offensive stats, he was a poor offensive player with a TS% of .501 and a eFg% of .468. He would be a liability on offense when he play and would have to compensate with his rebounding and defense.



NOTE: I wrote that Antoine Wright had TS% .617 and eFg% of .518 yesterday. It was my mistake, and I was referring to his playoff advanced stats. I apologize if I misguided any readers.


Finally, Reggie Evans was acquired for Jason Kapono earlier in the off-season. He is known for his poor offensive skills, but is considered a very strong rebounding and adequate defensive force. The general assumptions are consistent with the stats as he has a TS% .325 and eFg% of .222. He is going to be a liability on offense every time he is on the floor, and his rebounding and defense will have to make up for this shortcoming. His usage rate of 17.2 and assist % of 0 may imply that he is grabbing a lot of offensive rebounds and trying to score himself. He is a player which will not have plays run for him.




I predict that the Raptors would rank around the 14-16 in the NBA offensive efficiency next season factoring in the improvements of Bosh, Bargnani, and Calderon, Ukic and the acquisitions of Belinelli, DeRozan, Jack and Wright. Hedo and Rasho are lateral moves and Evans is a definite downgrade.

I predict that the offense would rank around the league average, and as a result, the rebounding and defensive need to be Top 10 or even Top 5 if the Raptors are to make a push in the playoffs or to be considered championship contenders.


* Moon TS% .569, eFg% .553 usage% 12.6,
Bargnani TS% .559, eFg% .512 usage% 22.7
Marion TS% .523, eFg% .491, usage % 20.2

^ Roko Ukic TS% .430 eFg% .397 usage% 21.3 assist % 27.2
Will Solomon TS% .504 eFg% .478 usage% 20.4 assist % 36.1
Anthony Parker TS% .524 eFg% .488 usage% 16.3 assist % 15.7

# Jason Kapono TS% .525 eFg% .513 usage% 17.4 assist % 9.1
Joey Graham TS% .542 eFg% .484 usage% 18.7 assist % 5.0

Monday, August 10, 2009

Evaluating the Raptors' Offense

Offense is predicted to be the Raptor's major strength next year due to the likes of Hedo Turkolu, Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon in our starting rotation. To see if this claim is true, I am going to examine the offensive performance of the Raptors last year and try and make predictions for this upcoming season. This article is going to explore the Raptors' performance on the offensive end last year, subjective measure of what the team in general did and how key individual players performed. Tomorrow, I will outline this upcoming season with predictions of individual player performances, team sets and how the Raptors offense would rank along the division and the NBA.

Last year the Raptors scored 99 points a game and 45.8% shooting. Compared to the rest of the NBA, this was fairly mediocre. Looking at some advanced defensive statistics, the Raptors offensive efficiency was 104.3, a very poor 22th in the NBA. The conference finalists (Lakers, Cleveland, Orlando and Nuggets) were all top 8 in offensive efficiency so the Raptors have a lot to make up a lot of ground in this department. 9 out of the top 10 teams in offensive efficiency made the playoffs so it is a good indication of a play-off quality squad (Phoenix Suns were the only team who did not make the playoffs but they were a 9th seed and the reason they were not better was because of their extremely poor defensive efficiency (22nd in the NBA). Toronto also came 20th in efficient field goal percentage, dispelling the myth that they were a good shooting team. The team may have good shooters (and even that is up to debate) and if so, they were not put in situations where they could score efficiently. Finally, the Raptors were ranked 3rd in assist ratio, and 14th in pace, meaning that this team was generally a half-court team which favored ball movement over 1 on 1 play.

I am going to break the Raptors season into three parts: beginning of the season with Sam Mitchell, the implementation of Jay Triano (with Calderon being injured), and the addition of Shawn Marion. There are many more subtle variables (Bargnani playing small forward, Bargnani becoming the starter and JO getting injured) but they will be considered in the context of their respective category.

At the beginning of the season, Sam Mitchell was trying to identify how to co-exist Bosh and O’Neal. At the same time, he was trying to give Bargnani as much time as possible. For offense, the main set being run was a pick and pop with Bosh and Calderon at the three point line with Bosh generally receiving the pass. At this position, Bosh would generally try to create opportunities one-on-one with the intent of getting to the free-throw line. This offense was predicated on the half-court because of O’Neal’s lack of agility and Calderon’s cautious nature. When this proved to not be effective, Mitchell tried the “towers” approach by putting Bargnani at small forward. This was a disaster defensively as Bargnani could not cover SF’s resulting in rotations of help defense of easy buckets for the opposition.

Jay Triano’s arrival as the head coach marked a shift towards more ball-movement and running in the open court. Triano spoke about finding cutters and creating scoring opportunities through ball movement. However the early term was more of the same as the team struggled to embrace the new methods. O’Neal got injured and Bargnani eventually become the full-time starter and with Bargnani willing to run the floor, the offense started to speed up a little. When I watched the games, one positive I remembered was the back-door cut of Jamario Moon with Calderon hitting him for an alley-oop.

Finally, there was a significant shift in offensive philosophy when O’Neal and parts was traded for Shawn Marion and Banks. This moved signified that the Raptors were shifting from a half-court oriented team to more of a running team. Calderon came back and started taking more risks with his passing and Marion made smart offensive decision with his positioning and cutting. There was more running off opponent misses and pushing the ball. The emphasis was on strong ball-movement in the half-court set. This type of offense, in my opinion, was closer to what Triano envisioned for the Raptors.

With regards to individual statistics, we are going to examine Efficient Field Goal Percentage (eFg %) True Shooting Percentage (TS %) and the Usage Rate (USG%). I am also just going to focus on the major players for Toronto last season. eFg% is a measure of shooting percentage that takes into account that the three point shot is worth one more point with .500 being average while TS% is a measure that takes into account all different types of shots (three point, two point, free throw etc.) and the league average was around .541. Looking at some individual player statistics, Bargnani and Bosh had average efficient field goal percentage (eFg %) at .512 and .492 respectively, Calderon was extremely strong at shooting with at .561 eFg% and Jermaine O’Neal was fairly poor with .473 and .422. In terms of True Shooting % (TS %), Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon had very strong numbers, each above .559. Jermaine O’Neal and Shawn Marion both had below average TS%. Finally usage rate is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by the player. On the team, Chris Bosh, Jermaine O’Neal and Andrea Bargnani had the highest usage rates with all of them being over 22%.

Looking at these results, it becomes clear that Jermaine O’Neal was a main reason why we had a poor season on offense. He had the third highest usage rate, and below average TS% and eFg% and also had one of the lowest (ignoring scrubs) assist rate on the team. He was, in my opinion, a black hole on offense and a large reason for our poor offensive play. Andrea Bargnani was an above average shooter but also had a low assist rate. He was a neutral on the offense for the Raptors last year. Chris Bosh was a good shooter (extremely good TS%, below average eFg% - because of inconsistency on three pointers), and had a below average assist rate and was considered a slight plus on offense. Jose Calderon was by far our best offensive player (extremely good TS% and eFg%) and also had an extraordinary assist percentage (41%). His usage rate was far too low for the offensive contribution he gave. I have to state this again, Jose Calderon was clearly our best offensive player by an enormous margin.

In general, the team’s emphasis was to throw it into the big man and let them try to create shot opportunities. Our best offensive player was severely under-utilized and two of the players with a higher usage rate than him were neutral or worse on offense. Bosh may be a better offensive player than the stats indicate, but the stats may have been lower because he had to create offense for himself and teammates, something which he is not strong at doing. Andrea Bargnani is a neutral on offense and that may improve, but if it does not, he has to improve his defense and rebounding significantly to warrant minutes in the rotation. Finally, it is such a relief that Jermaine O’Neal is gone, and our offense would be more efficient just because of that move. (I understand that he has been gone since the trade deadline, but I couldn’t find splits)

Note: thanks to basketballreference.com for the advanced metrics, and NBA.com for the general stats.

Friday, August 7, 2009

The Rationale Behind the Trade Presented

A couple of days ago I presented a trade possibility of Marcus Banks + Patrick O'Bryant + a second round draft pick for Morris Peterson. (see post below) There was a lot of reaction from the trade and most of it was negative, however reading through the comments there may of been people who may have misunderstood what I had presented. As such, I feel responsible for addressing some of the comments being made and bring some rationale for why I feel the trade might work. Ill list each subtopic by argument and try to answer it.

1. Trading Second Round Draft Picks are not the way to go, considering how many we have dealt away

I agree that trading away draft picks is not an effective way to build your team roster. In general, first round draft picks are set on the rookie scale and second round picks do not earn significantly more than the minimum which means that you usually get under-paid talent. However with respect to the Raptors situation, they are built to compete in the short-term (however flawed that strategy is) and need to compile enough depth for in-squad competition and in case of injury. Second round draft picks only sometimes evolve into rotation quality players and almost never contribute in their first season. For a team built like the Raptors, Peterson would derive more utility in the short (and probably long) term than a future second round draft pick.

2. Morris Peterson has two years left so bad trade idea

Because Marcus Banks is on a two year deal and is not even a rotation quality player, no GM would trade him for a shorter (expiring) contract. This is especially true with the 2010 off season coming up and GMs do not want to have contractual obligations going into the 2011 season. As such, the only way to move him would be for another player who has a two year or longer contract. Peterson has been marginalized in NO due to the signing of James Posey, and Peja and the drafting of Julian Wright. The team is over the luxury tax and needs to reduce salary to minimize the impact so they may consider trading Peterson for a smaller contract especially if there are enough incentives to make it worthwhile (second round draft pick, cash etc.).

3. Morris Peterson is a backing SG, not a SF

Morris Peterson has played both as a SG and SF in his career. He is 6'7 and 220 pounds, and has been in the league long enough to understand how to guard both position. Also, in the NBA the two wing positions are pretty homogeneous now with the rise of small-ball lineups.

4. Why trade for a "worse" contract?

As I stated before, the Raptors are designed to win now. They need all the depth they can get to sustain them in the long season and for insurance purposes. In addition, because the Raptors are under the luxury cap, this deal only adds roughly 500k this year and about 1.5 million next year. They will not fall into luxury tax concerns if they make the deal because they are shipping salary out. One person mentioned that the luxury tax figure might fall next year and this may pose some questions for the raptors. However, the difference would be 1.5 million (doubled up to 3 year) only for a 1 year period. I think the Raptors would consider having an asset like backup sg/sf like Peterson is worth that. In addition if the Raptors are really concerned about the luxury tax implications, the Raptors can trade the contract next season + an asset to a team under the salary cap for a draft pick or an salary exception (note: the same thing would have to be done with bank's contract).

5. There's no point wasting assets for the 15th roster spot

This deal is not so focused on filling the 15th roster spot as it is on creating a more balanced rotation. Currently, the Raptors' rotation is:

starters:
pg: jose calderon
sg: demar derozan
sf: hedo turkolu
pf: chris bosh
c: andrea bargnani

key reserves:
pg/sg: jarrett jack
sg: antoine wright
pf: reggie evans
c: rasho

deep reserves (probable DNP-CDs or getting no playing time)
pg: roko ukic
pg: quincy douby
pg: marcus banks
pf: patrick o'bryant

It is clearly obvious that we have too many dead weight point guards and too many inactive players in general. If this deal were to happen the rotation would change to:

starters:
pg: jose calderon
sg: demar derozan
sf: hedo turkolu
pf: chris bosh
c: andrea bargnani

key reserves:
pg/sg: jarrett jack
sg: antoine wright
sf: morris peterson
pf: reggie evans
c: rasho

deep reserves (probable DNP-CDs or getting no playing time)
pg: roko ukic
pg: quincy douby


Now the Raptors could now play douby (who is superior to banks) as their first option in their deep reserves. There would be 13 players on the roster so the team would not need to add any more players. But if they want to, they can now add players in other positions like: joey graham, pops or leon powe to really round out the roster.

6. Why trade another team's dead weight for our own?

When you consider this trade, please think back to the Rafeal Araujo / Kris Humphries trade. Both of these players were not contributing to their respective teams, so both GMs took a chance on a player to help them. The beauty of these deals are that they have little risk but the new addition could turn into a serviceable player. We can all agree that Aruarjo was not a rotation worthy player but he turned into Kris Humphries, an efficient player with rotation potential. This Morris Peterson deal is to trade two players who do not figure to be in our rotation for a 15-18 mpg guy who could provide significant value to the Raptors.

Conclusions

In all likelihood this trade is not going to happen, and I have probably spent way too much time on the topic, but I want to be sure that what I present is clear and understandable and the debate is focused on the issue.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Raptors Trade Possibility

The Raptors have had a pretty impressive off-season and have completely changed the make-up of the roster. Last year within the starters, the Raptor lacked a player who could create and make that 'dagger shot' and also lacked athleticism. BC addressed the go-to-man concerns by adding Hedo Turkolu, a player the Orlando Magic entrusted with taking their final shots and Colangelo addressed the athleticism issue by drafting DeRozan and trading for Antoine Wright (in particular for the shooting guard position.) Last year, our bench consisted of the likes of Kapono, Pops, and Humphries but it has been completely revamped with the additions of Jarett Jack, Rasho, Reggie Evans and Marco Bellinelli. There have been some questions about the Raptors back-up small forward, and this article attempts to identify a potential trade that is (slightly far-fetched) but possible.

The Trade: Marcus Banks + Patrick O'Bryant + Second Round Pick To New Orleans for Morris Peterson.

Does it Work Financially?

Because both teams are over the salary cap, the total salaries being traded must be within 125% of each other. The total salary Toronto is taking in is 5,993,240 and the total salary NO is taking in is 5,408,982. They are within 125% of each other.

Marcus Banks earns 4,553,793 this year, 9,401,379 over life of contract (2 years)
Patrick O'Bryant earns 855,189 this year and over term of contract (1 year)
Morris Peterson earns 5,993,240 this year and 12,384,480 over the life of his contract (2 years)

Note: I took these figures from ShamSports.com

Why the Raptors Makes this Trade?

The Raptors would make this trade because they instantly convert two pieces of dead weight off their roster for a serviceable backup shooting guard. Banks and O'Bryant do not figure to play much this year and this trade would provide us with an asset in return.

Peterson has shown in the past that he is a good defender, is not afraid to drive and loves the city Toronto. The roster would be complete for this year and there would be no need to sign Delfino.

Over his career Peterson has averaged 3.6 rebounds a game in 27 minutes, giving him a per-36 rebounding rate of 4.8 which seems below-average for a small forward, but solid nevertheless for a backup. Peterson plays good man-to-man defense and is capable of playing 15-18 minutes a night. At the age of 31, he can provide a veteran's presence while still being able to contribute.

Why New Orleans Makes this Trade?

New Orleans is currently roughly $8,000,000 above the luxury tax and have been making moves to try and lower their cap number this year and for the short-term (such as the Tyson Chandler trade). With this trade, they are able to reduce their salary obligations by $500,000 this year and $1,544,654 next year. Since they are most likely to be over the cap both year, this would translate into a savings of $4,089,308.

Peterson has had declining minutes with NO, and only played 12 mpg last year. He only played in 43 games and started 2. On NO's roster, there is Peja Stojakovic, James Posey and possibly Julian Wright ahead of him on the depth chart.

Conclusions

I think Toronto would definitely make this trade as it is an effective way to remove two useless bodies off of the roster for a productive backup while still remaining under the luxury tax.

I think New Orleans might make this trade because of the significant luxury tax savings and because there is no room for Peterson in the regular rotation. The addition of a second round pick would also sweeten the transaction for New Orleans.